England Vs India T20 World Cup 2026 Semi Final 2 Thursday 5th March

England to have the Highest first 6 overs 1.5 Pts @6/4 

Back Varun Chakravarthy for Top India Bowler 0.75 Pts @9/4

Back Phil Salt for Top England Bat 0.75 Pts @3/1

Back Jofra Archer for Top England Bowler 0.5Pt @14/5
(*odds accurate at the time of publishing)

Familiar Opposition

It’s hard to believe that this will be the third T20 World Cup semi final in a row between these two giants of the white ball game. England won by 10 wickets in Adelaide in 2022 and India responded comfortably in 2024, with the winner lifting the trophy on both occasions.

This will likely prove the toughest test yet for Brook and Baz. The Wankhede is the Indian equivalent of Edgbaston, widely considered a home fortress with several players possessing deep local knowledge. Quick outfields, short square boundaries at 63 to 66 metres and heavy evening dew make it a difficult venue for bowlers. Across nine T20Is here, the average first innings score is 190 and it has witnessed two of the quickest IPL centuries.

India are fairly priced @4/9 with BetWright and have fond memories in major tournaments at this ground, most notably the 2011 50 over World Cup final. There are also a few key metrics that tilt this in their favour:

• India middle order strike rate: 155+
• England middle order strike rate: 142
• England yet to produce a convincing 200+ total this tournament

Both sides have had moments of vulnerability at the top of the order, but those middle order differences could be decisive. Outside of the magic of Harry Brook and late contributions from Jacks or Curran, England have not consistently powered past elite bowling units.

It is also worth noting how decisive the death overs could be. The Archer v Bumrah subplot adds intrigue, and Archer appeals @14/5 for Top England Bowler given his IPL record here, taking a wicket every 13.57 balls with a powerplay economy below eight.

Now or Never for England’s Top Order

It has been a quieter week for England’s openers. Jos Buttler has struggled for rhythm and Phil Salt followed a blank against Pakistan with just two against New Zealand. That said, both possess strong IPL records at this venue and Buttler remains England’s leading run scorer against India in T20Is.

The underlying powerplay numbers still support them:

• Buttler and Salt average partnership: 42
• Powerplay dot ball percentage: under 30%
• Salt strikes a boundary every 3.8 balls at Wankhede
• 24% of Buttler’s IPL runs here come from boundaries

The short square boundaries are tailor made for Buttler’s game and Salt’s tempo can quickly put bowling attacks under pressure. While Sanju Samson produced something special last time out, I am not convinced India’s alternatives offer greater upside than Brook and Salt in these conditions.

@6/4 for England to post the Highest Powerplay score, the price feels generous.

This being said, it also makes sense to side with Salt for Top England Bat @3/1. Earlier in 2025, England were blown away here for 97, yet Salt smashed 55 off 23 and dominated the powerplay. He has a proven record in franchise knockout cricket and an average of 29 in those high pressure matches. Against Arshdeep and Hardik, I am more than comfortable backing arguably the best pure T20 opener in the world on his day.

It’s Varun’s World

Currently sitting pretty on 12 Tournament wickets and in a battle with a couple of South Africans for Top wicket taker I fully expect Varun Chakravarthy to come to the party here in this Semi Final. Just last year he took 14 wickets against England in a Bi-lateral series including a magic 5-24 in Rajkot , in fact it was the most wickets taken by a spinner in a India/England T20 Series. In overs 7-15 he is at his best and that is where at times I have not been convinced with England’s approach to spin and undoubtedly in my mind this will be the classiest operator they have faced. His tight economy figures here at the venue (6.5 runs an over in the IPL) are excellent considering the high scoring nature of the ground and expect him. 

In recent games he’s been put under the pump by sides without bowling poorly and I fear if England look to get hold of him here they may lose wickets at regularity. His slightly pushed out price as a result of this makes the @9/4 with Betwright a great bet in this India Top wicket taker market.